The Ways in Which Trump's Influence May Alter the Dynamics of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict
President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to undertake significant initiatives aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The effectiveness of his administration in achieving this objective, as well as the implications of such success for the future of both Ukraine and Russia, are still uncertain.
Arik Burakovsky, associate director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Tufts University, suggests that there is considerable potential for renewed dialogue with Russia if Trump actively pursues his ambitions to facilitate a cease-fire.
The implications suggest that there will be numerous diplomatic opportunities available for a second Trump administration.
Burakovsky stated to The Epoch Times, "Should both parties engage in dialogue, there exists a possibility to negotiate a cease-fire and establish security guarantees that could significantly contribute to Ukraine's stability."
"Nonetheless, I harbor concerns that if Russia and Ukraine continue to resist genuine negotiations and fail to make necessary compromises, Trump's focus may rapidly divert, particularly if there is no immediate progress," he further remarked.
When Russia initiated its comprehensive invasion in 2022, Ukraine committed to reclaiming all territories under its occupation, including Crimea, which had been annexed by Russia in 2014. In response, Moscow asserted its intention to persist in military operations until Ukraine was entirely demilitarized and established as a permanently neutral entity in the international arena.
Both parties have been hesitant to publicly compromise on their respective positions; however, there are indications of a potential openness to diplomatic engagement.
In late November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his readiness to consider a cease-fire with Russia, contingent upon NATO's commitment to defend Ukraine's unoccupied territories while negotiations regarding the future of the occupied eastern regions take place between Kyiv and Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has identified the prevention of Ukraine's NATO membership as a primary objective of the conflict, although it is improbable that Ukraine could secure the unanimous approval of all NATO members necessary for accession.
Zelenskyy’s proposal did not seek NATO membership but rather requested protection during the cease-fire period. Consequently, it is conceivable that NATO could agree to assist in maintaining peace as part of a broader negotiated agreement.
The central issue at hand is whether the Trump administration will continue with protracted negotiations or will hesitate due to the absence of immediate concessions from either party involved.
Burakovsky indicated that Trump's approach to international negotiations during his initial term might imply that U.S. support for Ukraine could falter if discussions reach an impasse, potentially resulting in a reduction of U.S. and allied assistance for Ukraine's defense efforts.
“This scenario could place Ukraine in a vulnerable situation, exposing it to increased Russian aggression without substantial support from Western nations,” Burakovsky remarked.
“In the end, while there remains a faint possibility for a peaceful resolution, its realization will depend on ongoing U.S. involvement and the commitment of both parties to pursue a genuine conclusion to the conflict,” he further stated.
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